Incidence of dengue in the state of Sergipe: trend and spatialization, 2012-2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55892/jrg.v7i14.1146Keywords:
Times series studies, Dengue, Spatial analysisAbstract
Objective: To analyze the spatial correlation and the temporal trend of the dengue incidence rate in the state of Sergipe, Northeast, Brazil from 2012 to 2021. Methodology: Ecological time series study on dengue in the state of Sergipe from 2012 to 2021 The cases were used to calculate the Incidence Rates (TI) and Standardized Incidence Rate (SPI) for dengue. The first was used to generate the maps (LISA Map/Moran's Global and Local Index – IGM and ILM) and the second was used to estimate temporal trends using JoinPoint Regression. Results: Over the 10 years analyzed in this study, 30,099 cases of dengue were reported in the state of Sergipe. The average TPI in Sergipe was 134.38 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (SD=129.84). The temporal trend of dengue TPI in Sergipe was stationary Annual Percentage Variation (APV)=-12.2 (general) -13.4 (female) and -10.5% (male) p>0.05. The analysis of spatial autocorrelation through the Moran Global Index, of dengue IT with the GINI indices, did not show a statistically significant association in any of the analyzed groups: male (I=-0.035, p=0.25), female ( I=-0.004, p=0.47) and general (I=-0.017, p=0.38). Conclusion: This study showed considerable rates of dengue cases in the state of Sergipe over the 10 years. The temporal trend of dengue TPI was stationary in all groups. The spatial analysis did not show a significant correlation by the global estimator (GMI), however, it identified a spatial correlation of dengue ITs with the GINI index of some municipalities in the state.
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