Brazil's demographics in the future: fertility rate, projection of elderly population and their impact on social security

Abstract

Brazil is experiencing a decline in its fertility rate, causing a demographic impact that, according to experts, will tend to reduce the population from 2048 onwards. The concern arises from demographic data presented by the IBGE. The median age is an indicator that divides a population into the youngest 50% and the oldest 50%. In Brazil, from 2010 to 2022, the median age rose from 29 to 35 years, highlighting the aging of the population. The latest survey conducted in 2024 showed that the population is expected to decline starting in 2048, due to the decrease in the fertility rate. On the other hand, life expectancy has increased, generating a projection of elderly people.

Based on these assumptions, it is concluded that birth rates will not be sufficient for sustainable population replacement and will pose major challenges for Social Security.

In view of this problem, the project seeks to clarify the factors causing the decrease in the fertility rate and the impacts resulting from this population decrease on social security, through the analysis of the agent generating the decrease in fertility, the changes in the population's behavior over the years, the circumstances that led to this number, as well as the increase in life expectancy, and the challenges for social security in view of these statistics. Based on the data released and the analysis of population behavior, the project seeks answers on what can be done to change this reality. What previously had as indicators of the fertility rate the following factors: level of education and income, which differentiated the number of children per woman, are now all the same. Another behavioral aspect of the population is the age factor, in which women began to have children at an older age. In view of the questions presented above, the research seeks to understand the data presented in the year 2024, and then, understand the challenges of social security and the impact on the contribution of new generations. Within this context, this work seeks to make a contribution to the area of ​​public economics, addressing the impact of population decline on social security financing, the effects on the lives of new generations and how the State entity has positioned itself regarding the problem, based on the study of the impacts of population decline on social security.